The GENIUS Act, as expected, received a lot of publicity after its passage in the US Senate on Tuesday. This bill is meant to lay out rules for payment stablecoins. Polymarket, a favorite predictions market among Beltway gamblers, began taking bets on passage of the bill. According to the latest PredictIt odds, that makes the GENIUS Act a barnstorming 89% likely to become law. Interest in it has certainly increased since Donald Trump implied he’d sign the GENIUS Act as-is, no amendments, please. He issued this statement contingent on the House passing it quickly.
As far as harmful unintended consequences to the crypto industry go, the GENIUS Act’s potential impact is enormous. This would allow US firms to issue stablecoins of their own for settling transactions. It would go a long way to providing initial guardrails for a coherent crypto market structure. The bill as passed by the Senate now moves to the House. Republicans, who hold a slim majority, may force a floor vote in the coming days.
As of Thursday, Polymarket data gives the GENIUS Act a 68-30 vote chance. Cryptocurrency users are actively betting on the bill's progression, fueled by the Senate vote and Donald Trump's expressed support. Just prior to the GENIUS Act’s final passage, a clear majority of those senators voted against a similar amendment.
These three possible amendments to the GENIUS Act could address Donald Trump’s connections to the crypto industry. This includes a particular focus on World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1. The GENIUS Act passed out of committee in an earlier stage, similar to the progression of the CLARITY Act.
It is important to note that Polymarket's odds do not guarantee the bill's passage by US lawmakers or Donald Trump's signature. All the above predictions are doing is just mirroring the mood of the participants in the prediction market.
