An 89% chance? That’s what Polymarket is predicting about the US stablecoin bill – the GENIUS Act – passing into law before 2026. Even Trump’s on board with the $7 billion request, urging Congress to “get it to my desk.” Sounds like smooth sailing, right? As if the crypto world is finally getting its regulatory validation? I'm not so sure.

Innovation or Invisible Handcuffs?

Let's be real. We're talking about money. And when governments begin to have serious conversations about regulating our money, particularly in the emerging digital world, those alarm bells must sound even louder. Make no mistake, this isn’t only about legitimatizing crypto; it’s about the promise of all new forms of unsettling control over our financial lives. Innovation for innovation’s sake We all love new tech and innovation, but this all needs to be done at what cost? Are we really just that desperate for the next shiny new toy that we’d sell our financial independence down the river for it?

Think about it – this bill, dressed up as the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act," could easily turn into the "Guiding and Establishing National Control Over US Stablecoins Act." That’s a bit of a tongue twister, but it’s a far more faithful reproduction of what might actually play out. The road to hell, after all, is lined with such noble purposes.

Who Benefits, Really?

The story being told is that this bill will set free innovation, letting all of these different companies issue their own stablecoins. Apple, Google, even Meta are big tech companies rumored to have been interested. Sounds great for them, doesn't it? What about the smaller players? What happened to that decentralized ethos that crypto was originally built upon?

This bill could easily create a system where a few massive corporations, already wielding immense power, control the stablecoin market. It effectively raises the barrier to entry so high that only they can afford to play. Is that the sort of “innovation” we should be encouraging? One that redistributes power away from everyday people and into the hands of a chosen few? I think not.

And what about the unbanked, the underbanked? The people who crypto could empower? Will their lives be made easier by this bill, or will it just introduce new challenges, new ways of excluding them? Does this mean it’ll need to have burdensome compliance and KYC (Know Your Customer) processes? If it were the case, it would close these people out of the growing digital economy.

Digital Freedom or Dollar Dominance?

Here's where it gets really interesting. And scary. One might think that this stablecoin bill that appears to be all about the US might not have global implications. It would deepen the US dollar’s global dominance, imposing new dependencies on developing countries.

Now picture this. US-regulated stablecoins are the default choice for the world’s international transactions. All of a sudden, the US government has even more unilateral leverage over the entire world’s financial flows. They can surveil data, delete payments, and control power in ways we have yet to dream.

This isn't just about convenience or efficiency. It's about power. It’s the power to control the flow of money and power to decide who has access to it. Is this really the future we want? A future where all our financial transactions are scrutinized and regulated by a small number of private companies?

I’m not arguing that this bill is eeeevilll in and of itself. We need to be damn careful. We need to ask tough questions. We need to demand transparency and accountability. We need to make sure that this bill doesn’t become a Trojan horse for fiscal monitoring. Instead, let’s turn it into a great engine of innovation and freedom.

The passage of the GENIUS Act is anything but inevitable, as shown by the fact that Polymarket’s prediction equals current market sentiment. Let's not be naive. Let’s move past the bowing and scraping and think about the actual impacts this could have. Our financial freedom may depend on it.

To do that, we have to encourage a more sophisticated discussion. It must look to the needs and freedoms of all people, not only the priorities of big business and mighty states. Let’s not automatically cannonball into an inflated future.