JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon anticipates a "kerfuffle" in the US Treasury market, a prediction that has stirred discussions about potential Federal Reserve intervention and its implications for Bitcoin. In addition, the 10-year Treasury Yield has skyrocketed recently to 4.5%, after starting this month at 3.9%. This rapid rise has further stoked fears over market health. This instability, along with how regulators may react to it, might impact Bitcoin’s price in a major way.
It’s smart to blame the anticipated upheaval on the growing “rules and regulations” that are affecting the Treasury market, Dimon. He agrees that the Federal Reserve will need to come in at some point, but only when Fed officials themselves “start to really panic a little bit.”
Furthering this *causal* narrative, Arthur Hayes, a former head of BitMEX and a thought leader in the cryptocurrency space implies a direct line of influence.
"What Jamie Dimon wants, Jamie Dimon gets." - Arthur Hayes
The link between Treasury market instability and Bitcoin price is in expected reaction to tightening monetary policy. At each instance, regulators decided to relax bank capital requirements, including the SLR. This generates a lot of excess liquidity, which too often gets pumped into riskier assets like crypto.
Bitcoin has already been making headlines for a significant breakout, currently surging 5.5% to $83,750 over the last 24 hours.
Adding another layer of complexity, the current US president has initiated a tariff war against major trading partners, including raising tariffs on China to 145%. This has further shaken capital markets. A 90-day respite has been declared on such “reciprocal” tariffs on imported goods from all other countries besides China. Uncertainty still remains.
Hayes thinks more regulatory easing, particularly about the SLR, is necessary for Bitcoin to continue its upward course.
"SLR exemption is what we need to send BTC orbital" - Arthur Hayes
