Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant and renowned on-chain analyst, has recently flip-flopped on Bitcoin. Smartly, he has since owned up to the fact that his prediction of the end of the bull cycle was incorrect. Five acute months shy of May 9, 2025, Ju produced a first draft. This statement has recently grown outdated with the changing market landscape, particularly with the effects of massive institutional liquidity entered from the launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs. On May 9, 2025, Ju stepped out onto the social media stage. Here’s that conversation, in which he reflected on his past mistake and explained what he’s learned about the evolving Bitcoin space.
Analyzing the Shift in Market Dynamics
Ju’s updated take focuses largely on the game-changing effect that approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs would have. He noted that the launch of these ETFs has significantly increased institutional liquidity. This encouraging development is shifting the very nature of the Bitcoin market.
As Ju notes, daily ETF volumes on average are now nearing upwards of $10 billion, signaling a massive wave of institutional capital coming in. That influx of liquidity seems to have upended the political and market forces that usually dictate Bitcoin cycles.
Ju further defined the powers that be that are currently controlling the market, which included legacy whales, miners and now retail investors. By comparison, he sees the former market structure as dominated by miners, retail and legacy whales.
The "Musical Chairs" Era and New Market Realities
Ju described the relationship between miners, small-time investors, and legacy whales as a game of “Musical Chairs.” He contends that the entry of institutional players has permanently altered the rules of this game. In the meantime, the previous analytical models have become outdated.
Ju’s analysis shows a remarkable change in the nature of Bitcoin cycles. The principles that once governed them no longer apply in this changed reality. Recognizing the large impact of institutional liquidity in 2025 should lead to a new framework for understanding market dynamics.
"New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi" - Ki Young Ju
Reflection on Past Predictions
On May 9, 2025, Ju looked back on his original call that the Bitcoin bull cycle was over. He admitted those miscalculations and provided fresh perspectives on the rapidly changing marketplace.
Ju first announced that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over.” This statement would turn out to be a bold one, by underscoring the challenges of anticipating market trends in a quickly-changing new space.
Ju’s willingness to own his mistaken assumption is an example of how important it is to always be learning and iterating. This principle is extremely important in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency analysis. As if that wasn’t enough, he has launched a chart he calls “Signal 365 MA”.
