Since its launch, Bitcoin has fascinated the financial community. Its decentralized nature and potential as a store of value has made it a subject of immense interest. BlockTraderHub.com provides news on markets, Bitcoin, DeFi, NFTs, and regulation, and this article explores a crucial aspect of Bitcoin's future: the increasing dominance of long-term holders, often referred to as "ancient" holders. Those who simply hold onto their Bitcoin in a dormant, inactive state are coming to play a more important role in the cryptocurrency’s supply story. Taken together, their actions are laying the groundwork for future price appreciation.

As we discussed recently, the total Bitcoin supply held by these long-term holders is currently very high. More than 17% of the current Bitcoin issuance, or around 3.4m BTC, can be categorized as ancient supply. Currently valued at $360 billion, this massive stack is a testament to long-term investor confidence. It is further predicated on an assumed price of $107,000 per Bitcoin. This behavior reflects both a faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and a desire to limit its short term availability and market volatility.

The effect of this trend is even more pronounced when one considers the roughly 900 Bitcoin that enter this supply cohort on a daily basis. As of June 8, 2025, an average of 566 BTC is moving into the old supply every single day. By comparison, miners are currently issuing ~ 450 BTC a day via block rewards. This divergence proves that an increasing amount of Bitcoin is being set aside for the long haul. Consequently, less is being added to the pipeline. This phenomenon contributes to a supply squeeze, which is when the short-term available supply of Bitcoin that’s easily tradable and instantly purchasable goes down.

The Future of Bitcoin Supply

Beyond the immediate effects of this trend, the future supply picture is equally concerning. As an increasing share of Bitcoin enters long-term storage, the liquid supply diminishes. This declining supply can increase the price as it becomes more scarce. This section will explore the projected growth of ancient Bitcoin holdings and the effects of reduced new supply on the market.

Projected 'Ancient' Bitcoin by 2035

As of now, whale holders are adding to their bags at record speed. Over the next few years, their share of total Fed holdings will increase dramatically. At the same time, projections suggest that ancient supply might make up around 20% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2028. This growth will only accelerate, with ancient holdings projected to reach 25% by 2034 and likely 30% by 2035.

This gradual boost to supply being held over the long-term illustrates a stronger conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value among its holders. Their commitment to holding, rather than trading – known as hoarding – reduces the supply available to the market, setting the stage for a supply shock. Institutional demand for Bitcoin is surging, fueled by interest from institutional investors and mainstream adoption. Given its recent somewhat tight supply, this trajectory might lead to outsized price spikes.

Implications of Reduced New Supply

As Bitcoin gets consistently scooped up into long-term wallets, the new supply is constantly being flushed down the drain, creating a complex and counterintuitive dynamic in the market. As Bitcoin grows to be more and more scarce, the value will begin to replicate the shortage. In this section, we will dive into the implications of this trend from price predictions to market behavior.

That’s why institutional investors are openly, voraciously, and rapidly accumulating Bitcoin. If they keep up this rate, at this pace, it is estimated that by the year 2026, 30% of the entire supply—roughly 6.3 million BTC—would be rendered illiquid. In fact, almost 17% of Bitcoin in existence is looking permanently illiquid right now, and that figure is set to continue to increase rapidly. This growing illiquidity plus surging demand would be a powerful force for price appreciation.

The psychology behind long-term holding is a final, but key, element. Most BTC holders would have considered Bitcoin to be a gambling chip, not a solution to geopolitical woes. This outlook prompts them to adopt a long-term view, willing to hold Bitcoin through the price highs and lows, to horizon infinity. This “hodl” mentality further reduces the circulating supply of Bitcoin. This attitude adds to the cryptocurrency’s long-term price potential.

Here are some of the potential impacts on market dynamics and price predictions:

  • Increased Scarcity: As the percentage of ancient Bitcoin grows, the scarcity of available Bitcoin increases. This scarcity can drive up the price as demand outstrips supply.
  • Reduced Volatility: A larger proportion of long-term holders can reduce market volatility. These holders are less likely to sell during price dips, stabilizing the market.
  • Price Appreciation: With reduced supply and steady demand, Bitcoin's price could experience significant appreciation. The extent of this appreciation will depend on various factors, including regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions.
  • Market Maturity: The increasing dominance of long-term holders can signal a maturing market. It indicates that Bitcoin is being viewed more as a store of value than a speculative asset.

The cohort of long-term Bitcoin holders is growing in strength. Either way, this trend points to a possible supply squeeze and is likely to cause future price appreciation. Twelve more Bitcoin are getting locked up in these old wallets each day. This dwindling market could create a perfect storm where demand severely outstrips supply. This dynamic, combined with the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and the "hodl" mentality of long-term holders, positions Bitcoin for potential price surges in the coming years. BlockTraderHub.com will be watching these developments closely, so stay tuned for more analysis on the rapidly changing landscape of Bitcoin and the world of blockchain!