Seventy-eight percent. The new magic number making the rounds in Bitcoin circles is the purported accuracy rate of a bullish engulfing pattern. This same pattern is thought to foreshadow new market highs. It sounds promising, doesn't it? A digital oracle whispering financial futures. So, before you sell your soul—or at least mortgage your house—take a moment and keep reading. Here are some hard questions to consider before jumping into the crypto deep end.

We listen to the siren song of financial independence. In developing economies such as Ghana’s, conventional banking structures often marginalize citizens while being prone to bribery. The promise is tantalizing: bypass the gatekeepers, control your own money, and participate in a global marketplace. Bitcoin, in theory, offers that. It can be a tool for economic empowerment, a way to send remittances without exorbitant fees, or to access capital when traditional loans are out of reach. Many talk about Bitcoin's ability to bypass traditional financial institutions, offering greater autonomy and access to capital for marginalized communities.

Here's where the "unexpected connection" comes in: remember the subprime mortgage crisis? They pledged accessibility, equity and wealth creation to marginalized populations. Unfortunately, those promises brought heartbreaking financial devastation for so many. Are we simply doomed to make the same mistakes, this time 2.0?

Given bitcoin’s extreme volatility, it is far too risky to serve as a store of value. This is particularly harmful to those who can least afford to lose their hard-earned savings. Consider a Ghanaian farmer who invests all of his hard-earned wages into Bitcoin and then watches it lose half its value overnight. That’s not freedom—that’s a different kind of economic slavery.

Let's dissect that 78% success rate. It’s an estimate that relies heavily on historical data since 2021, in a largely bull market. As our original article on this product explains, it was pretty much useless during the 2022 bear market. This is crucial! Technical analysis is just that, political window-dressing, if it’s not grounded in the realities of the policy debate. It’s the equivalent of using a weather report from July to forecast December weather.

And what of those “failed signals” in May 2024 and March 2025? They're conveniently glossed over. Remember, correlation does not equal causation. Just because a pattern often predicts a price increase doesn’t mean it will every time. It’s financial astrology, garbed in the robes of arcane mathematical magic.

We see liquidity recovery, capital inflows ($544 billion since Nov 2022), and all-time high realized market cap ($944 billion). All these numbers are impressive, but they don't guarantee future success.

And this is the big question that we all should be asking. Are we building a truly decentralized financial system that empowers everyone, or are we simply creating a new playground for wealthy investors and tech bros? Bad actors and con artists run rampant in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world. Their techniques are especially harmful because vulnerable populations are most susceptible to falling victim to these tactics.

Think about the environmental cost, too. Bitcoin mining already uses as much energy as many small countries, putting additional strain on communities that are on the frontlines of climate change. Is this really the kind of “freedom” we want to support? One that benefits our planet and the most vulnerable among us?

The government's role here is critical. We should strive for regulations that keep citizens safe while allowing new forms of innovation to flourish. As the Federal Reserve has found, a laissez-faire approach will deepen racial and economic inequality. We can’t ignore the great promise that Bitcoin might hold, but we cannot overlook the dangerous threat it carries.

In the end, the real question is not if Bitcoin can be a tool for freedom, but if it will be. How we regulate and use this technology is key. It’s time we put the wellbeing of our most vulnerable before the profits of our biggest corporations. Our first piece of advice is: Don’t be suckered in by the prospect of quick bucks. Read between the lines and remain cautious. Real financial empowerment lies in the ability to make informed choices—not in an ill-fated leap of faith based on opaque 78% accuracy.

Think about the environmental cost, too. Bitcoin mining consumes vast amounts of energy, disproportionately impacting communities already struggling with climate change. Is this the kind of "freedom" we want to promote? One that comes at the expense of our planet and the most vulnerable among us?

The government's role here is critical. We need regulations that protect citizens without stifling innovation. A laissez-faire approach will only exacerbate existing inequalities. We need to balance the potential benefits of Bitcoin with the very real risks it poses.

Ultimately, the question isn't whether Bitcoin can be a freedom tool, but whether it will be. It depends on how we use it, how we regulate it, and whether we prioritize the needs of the most vulnerable over the profits of the few. Don't be lured by the promise of easy riches. Do your research, be skeptical, and remember that true financial freedom comes from informed decisions, not blind faith in a 78% accuracy rate.