The cryptocurrency market is all abuzz with excitement as Bitcoin bucks its usual Q2 slump and heads sharply upward in 2025. After a slow February, the world’s premier cryptocurrency has returned with a vengeance! It has now reclaimed the $100,000 milestone and is aiming for its all-time high $108,786. Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar is stoking the flames even further with his bullish Bitcoin price forecast. He recently recommended Bitcoin as a bet to rise to a target of $137,000, thanks to a classic technical formation. This article will dive into Kibar's analysis, the cup and handle pattern, and the factors driving Bitcoin's current surge, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics at play.

Major Shorts Liquidation on Binance

The recent tumultuous markets have seen high profile liquidation cascades, especially on large exchanges such as Binance. These liquidations often occur when traders using high leverage are caught on the wrong side of a price movement, leading to cascading effects across the market.

Overview of Recent Liquidation Events

Surprisingly enough, in the past weeks, there were some very large short position liquidations on Bitcoin off Binance. Traders who were placing bets that Bitcoin was going to go down have been forced to cover those positions. Sadly, most of them did this at a net financial detriment as the worst outcome happened—the price went up. Conversely, an unexpected rapid price increase could be enough to set off a cascade of forced liquidations. This requires the short sellers to purchase back Bitcoin to cover their short position, adding further upward price pressure. Second, the scale of these liquidations can be huge—sometimes millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin contracts liquidated.

Impact on the Market

Here are the three most important effects that the liquidation of these short positions has on the Bitcoin market. First, it helps amplify buying pressure, as short sellers are forced to buy back Bitcoin to lock in their losses. This additional buying pressure can magnify the price momentum in the upward direction, forcing prices to run even higher. Second, liquidation events increase market volatility. Primarily, they lead to massive amounts of Bitcoin being purchased and sold in a flash. This volatility can present unique opportunities for traders, as well as increased risk. The liquidation of all these shorts does demonstrate a reversal of market sentiment. This shift is a sign that more traders are becoming optimistic about Bitcoin’s future.

Current Bitcoin Price Analysis

As of BTC’s price, it is just under $103,071. That’s almost a full percent increase from just 24 hours ago. Bitcoin skyrockets above its “minor high” around the old all-time high of $73,737 from last November 2021. This bullish move is confirming the potential resumption of its multi-year bull run.

Recent Price Trends

So far, the price action for Bitcoin in 2025 has been marked by both consolidative and aggressive bullish moves. After a relatively uneventful first quarter, Bitcoin came out to play in April. It broke through major resistance levels and made new highs for the year. The recent increase above $100,000 represents an important milestone. It indicates deep, sustained buying interest and a renewed, bullish confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term direction. The cryptocurrency seems to be heading back up to its crypto all-time high of $108,786. Should it manage to claim this level, we might be in for even bigger moves to come!

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Value

Aksel Kibar's prediction of Bitcoin reaching $137,000 is based on a technical analysis of the cryptocurrency's price chart. In particular, Kibar has spotted a “cup and handle” pattern, one of the most popular bullish technical analysis indicators around.

  • Institutional Adoption: Increased interest and investment from institutional investors, such as hedge funds, corporations, and pension funds, are driving demand for Bitcoin.
  • Regulatory Clarity: Progress in regulatory frameworks surrounding cryptocurrencies in various countries is providing greater certainty and legitimacy to the market.
  • Macroeconomic Conditions: Concerns about inflation and currency devaluation are leading some investors to view Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial assets.
  • Technological Developments: Ongoing development and innovation in the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the Lightning Network, are improving its scalability and usability.
  • Aksel Kibar's Analysis: Aksel Kibar's analysis focuses on the "cup and handle" pattern. This technical pattern is often seen as a bullish signal, suggesting that the price will continue to rise after a period of consolidation. Kibar noted that Bitcoin broke above its "minor high" around $73,737 in November 2024. Based on historical patterns, whenever BTC surpasses the minor high in the cycle, it goes on a parabolic run. Aksel Kibar put the cup and handle target for the market leader at around $137,000, which represents an over 33% rally from the current price point.
  • Post-Election Rally: Anticipation of favorable policies and increased market confidence following the November 2024 elections could also be contributing to the current rally.

Aksel Kibar's $137K Prediction: A Closer Look

The cup and handle pattern forms when prices are going down. That’s all followed by a rally that completely retraces the drop, forming a clear “cup” shape. Once the cup is complete, there is often a period of consolidation or a minor pullback, creating a “handle.” The handle, typically much smaller in diameter and width than the cup, slopes down and outward. The pattern is validated when price moves above the resistance created by the top of the handle.

Understanding the Cup and Handle Pattern

Kibar notes that Bitcoin has recently broken out of the iconic cup and handle pattern. It has now broken above its little-aside peak of just below $73,737 hit in November 2024. This breakout here is very bullish indicating the price can do a price discovery rally towards $137,000 as a first target area. Kibar’s analysis is all about looking back at historical trends. It is indicative that Bitcoin tends to go on parabolic runs after it breaks out over its local high within a cycle.

Implications of the Breakout

So, traders and investors can leverage various technical analysis tools to identify breakout patterns. More importantly, they can use these techniques on almost all cryptocurrencies and assets. Some of the key indicators to look for include:

Identifying Similar Breakout Patterns

Lastly, market sentiment is an incredibly important factor in driving prices of cryptocurrencies. Hopeful news, positive regulatory changes, and rising adoption can all fuel bullish sentiment, sparking massive rallies.

  • Volume: A significant increase in trading volume during the breakout can confirm the validity of the pattern.
  • Moving Averages: A bullish crossover of moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, can provide additional confirmation.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI reading above 70 can indicate overbought conditions, but it can also signal strong upward momentum.
  • Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels.

The Role of Market Sentiment in Crypto Surges

Market sentiment is often an extremely helpful indicator. You need to use it not as a stand-alone tool but with other analysis methods such as technical and fundamental analysis. An overreliance on sentiment alone can contribute to indiscriminate investment decisions.

Analyzing Market Sentiment

Aksel Kibar’s $137,000 forecast is definitely thrilling! Yet we need to be attuned to the potential downsides and worst case Bitcoin market scenarios that could develop.

  • Social Media: Monitoring social media platforms like Twitter and Reddit can provide insights into the prevailing sentiment among crypto enthusiasts.
  • News Articles: Tracking news articles and press releases related to cryptocurrencies can help identify potential catalysts for price movements.
  • Trading Volume: A significant increase in trading volume can indicate growing interest and confidence in a particular cryptocurrency.
  • Fear and Greed Index: The Fear and Greed Index is a popular tool that measures market sentiment based on various factors, such as volatility, social media activity, and Google Trends data.

Acting on Sentiment Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has gained a reputation for volatility and Bitcoin is no different. That said, a sharp market correction is always possible, which could easily take the shine off the ongoing market rally. Factors that could trigger a correction include:

Potential Risks and Alternative Scenarios

If Bitcoin is unable to break through its ATH of $108,786, that could be a sign that momentum is slowing down. This might set off a wave of fewer or could even cause them to lose value. Under this optimistic scenario, Kibar’s $137,000 fundraising goal would start to look a little more far-fetched.

Market Correction

Based on the current market conditions and Aksel Kibar's analysis, here are some actionable insights for traders and investors:

  • Negative News: Unexpected negative news, such as a major regulatory crackdown or a security breach at a large exchange, could lead to a sell-off.
  • Profit-Taking: As Bitcoin's price rises, some investors may choose to take profits, which could put downward pressure on the market.
  • Macroeconomic Events: Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as a sharp rise in interest rates or a global recession, could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.

Failure to Break All-Time High

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Alternative Scenarios

Other alternative scenarios could include:

  • Continued Consolidation: Bitcoin could continue to consolidate within a range, without experiencing a significant breakout or correction.
  • Gradual Appreciation: Bitcoin could gradually appreciate over time, without experiencing a parabolic run.
  • Black Swan Event: An unexpected "black swan" event, such as a major technological breakthrough or a geopolitical crisis, could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, either positive or negative.

Actionable Insights for Traders and Investors

Based on the current market conditions and Aksel Kibar's analysis, here are some actionable insights for traders and investors:

  1. Monitor Key Support and Resistance Levels: Pay close attention to key support and resistance levels, such as the all-time high of $108,786 and the previous high of $73,737.
  2. Use Technical Analysis Tools: Utilize technical analysis tools and techniques to identify potential breakout patterns and confirm trading signals.
  3. Manage Risk: Implement proper risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio.
  4. Stay Informed: Stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.
  5. Consider a Long-Term Perspective: While short-term price movements can be exciting, it is important to maintain a long-term perspective and focus on the fundamental value of Bitcoin.

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