Bitcoin started the week with a storm of price movement. The resulting bang was a thorough restructuring of the derivatives market as well. Regardless of the ups and downs, Bitcoin is still stagnant in the $100,000–$110,000 range, with onchain activity suggestive of a cooling down period. The crypto’s price action is presently wedged inside a falling channel. Investors and analysts are squarely focused on key technical support levels.
Bitcoin’s extreme volatility this past weekend and on Monday led to millions in short and long liquidations across the crypto market. According to data, $28.6 million worth of long positions and $25.2 million worth of short positions were liquidated in less than 24 hours. This exceptionally uncommon double-sided flush took a lot of leveraged futures merchants without warning, signaling the fragile and fast-moving nature of the market’s sentiment.
A major battle ground for Bitcoin is in the range of $103,400 and $104,600. This area beautifully coincides with a daily FVG. It is getting strong support from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), increasing the likelihood for price recovering.
In looking at BTC-denominated open interest, we see a corresponding drop of about 7%, declining from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC. The absence of bullish momentum indicates that bearish trends will likely persist through next week. More recently, core inflation has climbed to 2.7%, furthering the pressure. Consequently, ongoing price appreciation has reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate reductions. This macroeconomic landscape is still fostering a bearish environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets. This increase in inflation represents the first month-to-month increase since February 2025, indicating a return of inflationary pressures.
Even with all the short-term market jitters, long-term Bitcoin holders are standing firm. They are adding an average of ~800K BTC/month, a new record for their accumulation strategy. Glassnode data shows a relatively tempered $7.7 billion rise in spot volume during Q2, but still pointing to an underlying interest that still persists.
