Despite Bitcoin’s market trends signaling downward momentum, there is a glimmer of optimism for the world’s first cryptocurrency. HTF market structure has recently recorded its first 2025 breakout! This trend corresponds with a recent historic Bitcoin cumulative net taker volume spike. On April 11th, it skyrocketed to an all-time high of $800 million. Coupled with a recovering 30-day apparent demand, these factors indicate a turn in market sentiment. The 30-day apparent demand is still in the negative half. This just illustrates how early the recovery is still.
Market Structure and Taker Volume
This recent breakout in Bitcoin’s higher time frame (HTF) market structure is a fairly momentous occasion for 2025. This breakout, combined with the surge in cumulative net taker volume to $800 million, points to renewed interest and activity in the Bitcoin market. In fact, high net taker volume tends to be the fuel for price rallies. The price of Bitcoin, for instance, recently spiked from $78,000 to over $85,000 in less than three days.
What’s crucial to understand is that the ongoing rally has so far been characterized as a “leverage-driven pump.” As the cooldown phase progressed in the futures market, the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio tanked by 50%. This extreme reversal shows how much leverage drives the price action. Though this can produce fast-wins, it comes with the potential downside of greater volatility.
Apparent Demand and Price Movement
Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand is just starting to recover, still below the net positive line. Historically, after finding a local bottom, Bitcoin’s 30-day obvious demand tended to go sideways for long stretches. This suggests that, even if the current recovery continues, the cryptocurrency may require some time for consolidation. Beyond that, we might start to get some continuous short-term positive momentum. The entire market could enter a year-long sideways chop as a product of this artificial demand.
Despite consecutive drawdowns of 17.39% and 2.3% in February and March, Bitcoin's Q2 is showing promise with a 3.77% return in April. BTC price has reached new yearly lows at $74,500 just recently. Today, its price is nearing $90,000, indicating a robust room for more upside to come.
Liquidation Levels and Potential Upside
Determining the liquidation levels reveals that countless short positions are at risk of liquidation. If Bitcoin’s price continues to go up, these short positions stand to incur heavy losses. These total cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation add up to a collective $6.5 billion if BTC price reaches $90,035. This suggests that once the price descends to this level it would set off a cascade of liquidations. This, in turn, would drive up the price even more.
