Bitcoin got battered, crashing to $103,500. Traders were reducing their risk tolerance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting announcement. The decision came in the context of rising geopolitical tensions, especially with the Israel-Iran conflict. This positive disposition contributed to risk-off sentiment across the entire market.
Bitcoin’s price action over the last few weeks formed a bearish weekly candle close indicating that we could be seeing a local trend reversal. Specifically in the past 24 hours, traders liquidated more than $434 million in Bitcoin futures. This spike highlights just how leverage-driven the current market movement is, leading traders to be more hesitant.
Despite the negative recent turn, several indicators suggest underlying strength. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., it’s mainly long-term holders (LTHs) who are keeping their bitcoins. This price action has been a very bullish omen for the broader market historically.
Additionally, Bitcoin boasts a robust MVRV or Market Value to Realized Value Z-score, indicating it is still fundamentally undervalued. Positive CDD momentum reflecting that profit taking is highly selective not panic selling pervasive. On Monday, mid-cycle holders (six–12 months) booked $904 million in profits.
Here are some of technical analysis to help fix firm the potential key levels to watch. A clean reclaim and close above $106,748 would trigger confirmation of a bullish mean reversion up to $112,000. On the flip side, a clear break under $100,000 could prove the present formation wrong and aim for $98,000.
According to prominent crypto analyst Alphractal, $98,300 is the key support level for Bitcoin. At the current market price, short-term holders (STH) still remain in profit.
"As long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, we can still consider the market to be bullish. The scenario would only change if BTC loses the $98K level aggressively, which could trigger a deeper drop." - Alphractal
Coupled with other data, such as the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index having been consistently positive for nearly all of June, there are bullish signs. This should be taken as an indicator of steady US spot demand from US based investors.
Along with the set up we had seen during previous cycles, which have usually foreshadowed 18–25% rallies within six–eight weeks. If this pattern holds true, it means that Bitcoin can realistically trade up to a $130,000 price target around the end of the second quarter. According to some crypto-affiliated analysts, Bitcoin might be climbing toward a short-term bottom located within the range of $102,000 and $104,000.
