So, Bitcoin hit $100K again. Cue the champagne and “I told you so’s” from the crypto bros, amirite? Not so fast.

They’re misleading you by saying it’s the new UK trade deal that’s fueling the rocket. That's the Trade Deal Lie.

Does The Trade Deal Really Matter

Let's be brutally honest: the UK deal is being massively overhyped. While it’s a positive step, the action is less of an accord than a comprehensive abolition of new tariffs. Though the UK, god love ’em, are a small piece of the US trade pie. We are talking about a trade surplus!

Think of it like this: celebrating a small side hustle while your main business is crumbling. Therefore, a deal with one of our most important Asian trading partners, particularly if that partner runs a significant trade deficit with us would be a true game-changer. This? It's a distraction. Powell’s concerns about the effect of tariffs on slowing growth and higher prices are still fresh in my mind. This single deal won't fix that. We need a flurry of truly impactful deals, and fast, to make good on this surge.

Is Bitcoin Freedom For Everyone

Bitcoin is an incredible tool for financial freedom. It enables individuals to circumvent legacy systems and retake power over their financial resources. Who are these people, really?

Strictly speaking, let’s be honest, the early adopters and institutional investors are really the ones benefiting. They purchased in at the very low end of the market, and they’re now cashing in. What about the typical citizen, particularly in less developed or emerging economies such as Ghana, where I currently work and reside? Are they really having fun with this newfound freedom? Or just creating new classes of users who are more vulnerable to scams and the market’s extreme volatility?

I see the potential for empowerment, sure. I would be remiss, again, not to see the potential for exploitation. The allure of easy fortunes so easily blinds people to the danger. It’s the equivalent of putting the candy store in front of a kid who’s already hopped up on sugar. The appeal to “freedom” entirely ignores the tangible barriers so many still encounter. It turns a blind eye to the absence of an educational ecosystem around investing safely and the potential for catastrophic losses.

The Unseen Costs of Bitcoin

What’s the environmental cost of mining all that Bitcoin? The energy consumption is insane! Do we truly want to give up our environment for a potential asset class? What about the regulatory challenges? The lax oversight creates a serious void in which illicit activities have thrived.

The story has not been the risks, but all the promise, all the potential and a convenient overlook of the very real, the very actual dangers.

  • Increased Energy Consumption: Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, contributing to carbon emissions.
  • Regulatory Challenges: The decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it difficult to regulate, leading to potential risks for investors.
  • Economic Inequality: The volatility of Bitcoin can exacerbate existing economic disparities, benefiting those who are already wealthy.

Bitcoin ETFs are gaining significantly more investment than gold ETFs, they argue. MicroStrategy and its “copycats” are stockpiling Bitcoin. But this doesn’t seem like a revolution, it seems more like a feeding frenzy.

First off, we’ve been told Bitcoin is in a four-year cycle, closely correlated to Bitcoin’s halving events. That the last halving was April 2024, so the good times could be over by November. Beware the “blowoff top,” the eureka summit before the crash, as in November 2021. Remember that? People lost fortunes.

Here's the thing: I'm not saying Bitcoin is inherently bad. The technology is incredible, the vision of decentralized finance is sexy. But we need to be realistic. We need to be critical. And we need to stop taking the bait hook, line and sinker.

Buy for the long haul, they say. But what if the long haul is headed over a cliff?

Bitcoin is volatile. It does go through boom-and-bust cycles. Get ready for the bust, though, because it’s definitely on its way.

Is Bitcoin freedom? Potentially. Is it fool's gold? Absolutely, if you're not careful. And that trade deal? Don't let it blind you.

Is Bitcoin freedom? Potentially. Is it fool's gold? Absolutely, if you're not careful. And that trade deal? Don't let it blind you.