Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has just released a brand new Bitcoin price prediction. In fact, they’re predicting that it could increase to $2.4 million per coin by 2030. This optimistic projection, announced on Thursday, put Ark Invest on the list of the most optimistic voices forecasting Bitcoin to reach such high valuations. The firm’s analysis goes beyond earlier forecasts, adding new variables to defend the higher target.
Ark Invest's updated price target is roughly 40% higher than the firm's base model. Taking Bitcoin’s active supply and network activity into account, this new projection is a significant step beyond the macro factors included in their base model. The firm doesn’t doubt these metrics indicate an even more promising future for the cryptocurrency.
Previous Predictions and Industry Optimism
Ark Invest’s past Bitcoin price forecasts had been included in its annual Big Ideas report. These previous predictions used total addressable markets (TAM) and penetration rate assumptions to project Bitcoin’s future value. The new report raises these earlier forecasts to a new, more detailed analysis.
Ark Invest certainly isn’t alone in its bullish outlook for Bitcoin. MicroStrategy Chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor has made some bold Bitcoin predictions, including $13 million per coin within the next 21 years. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is another person who expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million per coin.
Network Liveliness and Vaulted Supply
One important aspect of Ark Invest’s analysis is the idea of “network liveliness.” As they note in their report, a large majority of Bitcoin supply seems to have a long-term storage allocation.
Bitcoin’s network liveliness has remained near ~60% since early 2018. In our view, that magnitude of liveliness suggests that ~40% of supply is ‘vaulted,’ - Ark Invest report
This “vaulted” supply, which the firm estimates at about 40%, is reason for the boosted price target. By taking this factor into account, Ark Invest is confident its model is a more precise representation of Bitcoin’s potential.
Assumptions and Future Outlook
Ark Invest’s report lays out these targets with different assumptions to arrive at high, medium, and low Bitcoin price targets. The $2.4 million target is an optimistic case scenario, and it depends on ongoing adoption and network expansion. As such, investors should keep these assumptions in mind when analyzing the forecast.
